Tuesday, May 23, 2017

2017 Portfolio Update (May)

 
  • Note: P/L computation only takes into account the current holdings in the portfolio, and excludes capital gains/losses and dividends from divested shares, and commission charges/fee

Soon after I added my latest holdings (Keong Hong @ $0.5), it's price corrected further until the latest low of $0.465. I took the opportunity to average down and reduced my average entry to $0.4825.

Wednesday, May 3, 2017

2017 Portfolio Changes: Added Keong Hong (3 May)

It has been almost 3 months since I did anything to my portfolio. During these 3 months, the market has been in a bullish mood, especially in the manufacturing industry with stocks like Micro-Mechanics and UMS near their all-time high. In such times, stock picking becomes increasing challenging.

After going through my shortlist of stocks, I finally added Keong Hong Holdings today @ $0.5.



The financials summary are as follows:



EPS in 2016 was at $0.1508, down by about 6% from the previous year. But if we look at 2 years before, it's actually growing. Based on my entry price and FY2016 DPS of $0.035, dividend yield is 7%. Based on the numbers, dividends are easily sustainable as the payout ratio is only about 23%. P/E ratio is low at about 3.3, compared to its peers.

I think Keong Hong's strength is in its ability to work with well-known developers for projects through joint ventures. The recent JV for Seaside Residences with Frasers Centrepoint proved to be well-received.

While the thing about Keong Hong that I dislike is that its business is project-based, its order book is still healthy and stands at about $350M, based on its 2016 Annual Report. The company also announced recently that it is acquiring 60% of Hansin Timber Specialist as part of its long-term strategy to provide more diversified and recurring income for shareholders.

Friday, April 28, 2017

2017 Portfolio Update (Apr)

 
  • Note: P/L computation only takes into account the current holdings in the portfolio, and excludes capital gains/losses and dividends from divested shares, and commission charges/fee
 
Thanks to the coming long weekend with May Day holiday, I finally took the opportunity to do this posting for April's portfolio update. Seems that I am getting lazier due to work and family commitment ;P.  There is no interesting changes to my portfolio except waiting to collect my dividends from M1 this month.

There is a spike up in share price of UMS today due to the company's announcement that it has secured 7 projects in Asia, Middle East and S America worth S$13M. With its new business direction to diversify beyond semiconductor industry, these new projects suggest demands in it's new proposed water and chemical engineering business, and most importantly, mitigated its long-time key customer risk - Applied Materials, which contributed to about 80-90% of UMS's revenues.



Further developments to the M1 saga also helped to improve the valuation of my weakest counter, M1. With interested parties in the picture, it seems the buyout possibility could be higher now.




Tuesday, March 21, 2017

2017 Portfolio Update (Mar)

 
  • Note: P/L computation only takes into account the current holdings in the portfolio, and excludes capital gains/losses and dividends from divested shares, and commission charges/fee

There is no changes to my portfolio this month as of the date of this posting. Q1 this year seems to be bullish for my portfolio as the current unrealized gain reached close to 20% mark, helped by the Trump-rally and recently the M1 saga of a possible buyout.

UMS has overtaken QAF as my top winner once again, and is currently a 1-bagger if I take into account the past dividends received.

Looking forward to more growth and dividends! :D

Monday, February 27, 2017

Anchoring Bias Saved Me from QAF

It has been a while since I blogged about my thoughts, instead of the regular updates on my portfolio.

Today saw a surprising strong sell-down in QAF right from the market open. The decline was as much as -11% on the day's low and closed -9% at $1.415, compared to previous day's close at $1.555.with more than 4.5M shares changing hands:




I was invested in QAF in Dec 2013 at $0.825. If my memory serves me correct, I think 1 of my reasons for buying into QAF was a consistent dividend of 6% yield-on-cost from a sound non-Reits business. It went well with my income-investment, and so I bought it.

Since then, its fundamentals improved significantly over the 3 years+ invested and it was reflected in its share price, and turns out to be the top winner of my portfolio currently. What kept me from increasing my exposure to QAF was the low yield based into the current price, although I understand that the current price is supported by its improved fundamentals.

It happens that the market will have mood swings once in a while. At the current price, I will continue to hold and collect my dividends.

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

2017 Portfolio Update (Feb)

 
  • Note: P/L computation only takes into account the current holdings in the portfolio, and excludes capital gains/losses and dividends from divested shares, and commission charges/fee
 
StarHub released its 2016 full-year results on 3 Feb. Net profit after tax was down 33% YoY for Q4 and 8% for the full year. Free cash flow was at negative $45M. (And the 4th Telco has not even open shop yet!). On top of this, it also dropped the bombshell to reduce it's dividends by 20% for 2017. In view of this, I have divested StarHub @ $2.85 on 6 Feb.
 
I utilized the proceeds to add Fraser Com Tr to my portfolio.
 
Today RHT Health Trust saw a huge sell-down/shorting of its shares. At 1 point, it was down more than 17% to $0.71 (compared to its previous close of $0.865), before recovering a bit to close at $0.795. I am not aware of anything that could explain the big price decline, but I should remember "to buy at a price I would not sell". As such, I took the market's offer to accumulate more RHT Health Trust at $0.73 a piece. This would bring my average price (coincidentally) to the closing price.
 
 
 
To fund my purchase, I have divested Sabana Reit and netting a gain of >20% in the process. I had wanted to keep Sabana as a "turn-around" play, but with the current saga of the uniholders demanding its managers' removal, I think the share would likely remain range-bound in the short term until the outcome becomes clearer. Putting the money in RHT Health Trust seems to provide more "value" to me.
 
Of course, my opinion could very well turn out to be wrong. We can only be sure on the hindsight.
 
 

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Happy Chinese New Year cum Portfolio Update

恭喜发财!As we welcome 2017 year of the rooster, I wish everyone good health and a happy and prosperous new year! HUAT AH!!



I will take this chance to do a portfolio update for the year too, since I missed doing one earlier due to my busy schedule and laziness! Haha. Overall, my AlcusTrader portfolio is still doing well. Existing holdings in the portfolio managed a 8% unrealized gain with 0.66% yield received so far (Hey! It's just the beginning of the year and companies' reporting session is still underway)



  • Note: P/L computation only takes into account the current holdings in the portfolio, and excludes capital gains/losses and dividends from divested shares, and commission charges/fee

During the past few months, I made a few changes to the portfolio. Firstly, I cut my O&G exposure with KepCorp and SembCorp and accumulated more M1, making it my top holdings. As a result, the portfolio is now heavy weighted in Telcos. As of now, I will not be looking to add any more exposure. On the hindsight, I missed out the O&G recovery.

I also initiated positions in IREIT Global and Sabana Reit. Wait.. what?! Yes, Sabana Reit?!

It is said that "All investments are good at the right prices". Sabana Reit was one of the "pioneer" stocks in my AlcusTrader portfolio when I started it in Jan 2013. It was even once my top winner. Today only Kep Infrastructure Trust (formerly known as CitySpring Infrastructure Trust) and UMS still remains. I have reduced my exposure in Sabana Reit 1st in Dec the same year and fully divested it in Jan 2014 after I was concerned with the poor management and disappointing stock performance. Thereafter, it had been suffering a prolonged and painful drop, backed by declining DPU.

Given the recent significant decline due to the rights issue, Sabana is probably now one of the most shunned S-Reit. I took calculated risk to initiate a small position in Sabana Reit at $0.35 on 12 Jan for turn-around yield play. The strategy is somewhat similar to Silverlake Axis, by having some exposure but at the same time keeping the risk small. At the current price, I think it presents some value with significant discount to book value, and compelling dividend yield in excess of 10% (even if current dividend were to reduced). I believe at the current price level, most of the impact of the rights issue should have been factored in by the market. The price seems to be stabilizing even with the Q4 announcing lower DPU and development in unitholders campaigning to have its managers removed. As of now, I will keep Sabana in the portfolio unless there is further severe deterioration in it's financials.

Hope this year will be better than the last!!