Tuesday, March 21, 2017

2017 Portfolio Update (Mar)

 
  • Note: P/L computation only takes into account the current holdings in the portfolio, and excludes capital gains/losses and dividends from divested shares, and commission charges/fee

There is no changes to my portfolio this month as of the date of this posting. Q1 this year seems to be bullish for my portfolio as the current unrealized gain reached close to 20% mark, helped by the Trump-rally and recently the M1 saga of a possible buyout.

UMS has overtaken QAF as my top winner once again, and is currently a 1-bagger if I take into account the past dividends received.

Looking forward to more growth and dividends! :D

Monday, February 27, 2017

Anchoring Bias Saved Me from QAF

It has been a while since I blogged about my thoughts, instead of the regular updates on my portfolio.

Today saw a surprising strong sell-down in QAF right from the market open. The decline was as much as -11% on the day's low and closed -9% at $1.415, compared to previous day's close at $1.555.with more than 4.5M shares changing hands:




I was invested in QAF in Dec 2013 at $0.825. If my memory serves me correct, I think 1 of my reasons for buying into QAF was a consistent dividend of 6% yield-on-cost from a sound non-Reits business. It went well with my income-investment, and so I bought it.

Since then, its fundamentals improved significantly over the 3 years+ invested and it was reflected in its share price, and turns out to be the top winner of my portfolio currently. What kept me from increasing my exposure to QAF was the low yield based into the current price, although I understand that the current price is supported by its improved fundamentals.

It happens that the market will have mood swings once in a while. At the current price, I will continue to hold and collect my dividends.

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

2017 Portfolio Update (Feb)

 
  • Note: P/L computation only takes into account the current holdings in the portfolio, and excludes capital gains/losses and dividends from divested shares, and commission charges/fee
 
StarHub released its 2016 full-year results on 3 Feb. Net profit after tax was down 33% YoY for Q4 and 8% for the full year. Free cash flow was at negative $45M. (And the 4th Telco has not even open shop yet!). On top of this, it also dropped the bombshell to reduce it's dividends by 20% for 2017. In view of this, I have divested StarHub @ $2.85 on 6 Feb.
 
I utilized the proceeds to add Fraser Com Tr to my portfolio.
 
Today RHT Health Trust saw a huge sell-down/shorting of its shares. At 1 point, it was down more than 17% to $0.71 (compared to its previous close of $0.865), before recovering a bit to close at $0.795. I am not aware of anything that could explain the big price decline, but I should remember "to buy at a price I would not sell". As such, I took the market's offer to accumulate more RHT Health Trust at $0.73 a piece. This would bring my average price (coincidentally) to the closing price.
 
 
 
To fund my purchase, I have divested Sabana Reit and netting a gain of >20% in the process. I had wanted to keep Sabana as a "turn-around" play, but with the current saga of the uniholders demanding its managers' removal, I think the share would likely remain range-bound in the short term until the outcome becomes clearer. Putting the money in RHT Health Trust seems to provide more "value" to me.
 
Of course, my opinion could very well turn out to be wrong. We can only be sure on the hindsight.
 
 

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Happy Chinese New Year cum Portfolio Update

恭喜发财!As we welcome 2017 year of the rooster, I wish everyone good health and a happy and prosperous new year! HUAT AH!!



I will take this chance to do a portfolio update for the year too, since I missed doing one earlier due to my busy schedule and laziness! Haha. Overall, my AlcusTrader portfolio is still doing well. Existing holdings in the portfolio managed a 8% unrealized gain with 0.66% yield received so far (Hey! It's just the beginning of the year and companies' reporting session is still underway)



  • Note: P/L computation only takes into account the current holdings in the portfolio, and excludes capital gains/losses and dividends from divested shares, and commission charges/fee

During the past few months, I made a few changes to the portfolio. Firstly, I cut my O&G exposure with KepCorp and SembCorp and accumulated more M1, making it my top holdings. As a result, the portfolio is now heavy weighted in Telcos. As of now, I will not be looking to add any more exposure. On the hindsight, I missed out the O&G recovery.

I also initiated positions in IREIT Global and Sabana Reit. Wait.. what?! Yes, Sabana Reit?!

It is said that "All investments are good at the right prices". Sabana Reit was one of the "pioneer" stocks in my AlcusTrader portfolio when I started it in Jan 2013. It was even once my top winner. Today only Kep Infrastructure Trust (formerly known as CitySpring Infrastructure Trust) and UMS still remains. I have reduced my exposure in Sabana Reit 1st in Dec the same year and fully divested it in Jan 2014 after I was concerned with the poor management and disappointing stock performance. Thereafter, it had been suffering a prolonged and painful drop, backed by declining DPU.

Given the recent significant decline due to the rights issue, Sabana is probably now one of the most shunned S-Reit. I took calculated risk to initiate a small position in Sabana Reit at $0.35 on 12 Jan for turn-around yield play. The strategy is somewhat similar to Silverlake Axis, by having some exposure but at the same time keeping the risk small. At the current price, I think it presents some value with significant discount to book value, and compelling dividend yield in excess of 10% (even if current dividend were to reduced). I believe at the current price level, most of the impact of the rights issue should have been factored in by the market. The price seems to be stabilizing even with the Q4 announcing lower DPU and development in unitholders campaigning to have its managers removed. As of now, I will keep Sabana in the portfolio unless there is further severe deterioration in it's financials.

Hope this year will be better than the last!!



Thursday, January 5, 2017

2017 Portfolio Update (Jan)

 
  • Note: P/L computation only takes into account the current holdings in the portfolio, and excludes capital gains/losses and dividends from divested shares, and commission charges/fee

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

2016 Portfolio Update (Aug)

 
  • Note: P/L computation only takes into account the current holdings in the portfolio, and excludes capital gains/losses and dividends from divested shares, and commission charges/fee

Dividends for Aug:
  • Kep Infra Tr: $0.0093/share
  • First REIT: $0.0211
  • SoilbuildBizReit: $0.01565
  • Keppel Corp: $0.08
  • StarHub: $0.05
  • SembCorp Ind: $0.04
  • M1: $0.07

Recent Portfolio Changes:
  • Divested Japan Food @ $0.3645 (11 Aug)
  • Vested OCBC @ $8.46 (11 Aug)

Thursday, July 28, 2016

2016 Portfolio Update (Jul)

I have been holding OUE HTrust for more than 1.5 years since I bought into it late Oct 2014. It was doing fine as an investment until it started going downhill a year ago. Back then, it was a relatively new REIT after placing its IPO at $0.88 a year earlier and promised a yield of more than 7%.

Fast forward to 2016, when it issued Rights to fund acquisition of Crowne Plaza Changi Airport, I have expected it to be DPU accretive. But so far, taking into accounts the capital that I have injected for Rights participation, it seems to me that the deal resulted in, at best comparable DPU (in dollars terms) with higher gearing for its portfolio expansion, as DPU has dropped as a result of the larger base of outstanding shares after the Rights issue.

Comparing OUE HTrust and its peer Ascendas HTrust, I think the latter presents better value for money. Both are stapled security and had their IPOs priced at $0.88. OUE HTrust currently holds 3 assets which are all in Singapore (including the acquired Crowne Plaza), whereas Ascendas HTrust offers better diversification having 11 assets mainly in Australia and Japan and are freehold!



I have divested my holdings in OUE HTrust at $0.725 and managed to break-even with a 2% return helped by the post-Brexit rally (after taking into account dividends received), and redeployed the proceeds by initiating positions in Ascendas HTrust and Japan Foods.




This is my 1st counter in F&B. F&B businesses are facing stiff competition due to high labour and rental costs in Singapore. As reflected in its FY2016 results, Japan Foods achieved a net profit of $3.8M, down ~20% from $4.7M in the previous financial year. However, I think Japan Food is still managing the cost well. Gross profit and gross profit margin was 1.1% and 0.8% higher respectively. Cash flow also remained healthy at $16.9M and no borrowings.

I'm not sure if the profits going forward will turn-around or deteriorate, but from the results so far, it seems that revenue is likely plateaued.

I like Japan Foods for its extensive brand portfolio which includes heartland names like "Ajisen Ramen", "Menya Musashi", "Osaka Ohsho", "Fruit Paradise", and its latest "New ManLee Bak Kut Teh" and wide network of outlets (currently 48) scattered across most popular shopping malls in Singapore.

The company has maintained the total dividend amount for FY2016 by increasing the payout ratio to 92%. I'm concerned with its high payout ratio for dividends sustainability, but I also think that it demonstrates the confidence that its management has in the growth prospect of the business.

Over the weekend, I dropped by Osaka Ohsho at Waterway Point with my family for dinner for an informal "site survey" before initiating my position, and was presently pleased with the customer flow and long queue of diners waiting to get a seat. I'll be looking forward to see any improvements in their profits.

 
  • Note: P/L computation only takes into account the current holdings in the portfolio, and excludes capital gains/losses and dividends from divested shares, and commission charges/fees

Dividends for Jul:
  • UMS: $0.01/share

Recent Portfolio Changes:
  • Divested OUE HTrust @ $0.725 (25 Jul)
  • Vested Ascendas HTrust @ $0.73 (25 Jul)
  • Vested Japan Foods @ $0.385 (26 Jul)